Highest temperature in Miami on August 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami is running hot, but the decisive question for this market is whether any afternoon shower or thunderstorm interrupts the climb before the airport’s daily peak. NWS Miami has repeatedly flagged temperatures peaking in the low to mid 90s, with scattered showers and storms developing through the afternoon and carrying the usual South Florida risk of heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.[2][3][4]

That pattern makes the 0% YES price look anchored to a narrow outcome: the day needs an exceptionally hot reading at Miami International Airport, not just a warm one. Comparable late-August setups in Miami often top out in the low 90s rather than pushing far beyond them, and the midday observation already had the airport at 86F after an 11am 90F reading, showing there was room to rise but also time for cloud cover or convection to trim the ceiling.[6][8][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the timing and coverage of showers, plus whether the airport gets sustained sunshine before the usual afternoon storm cycle. The latest NWS updates kept shower chances elevated and highlighted interior and south-west Florida as the main focus for convection, while tropical monitoring also showed no immediate local cyclone threat, which reduces one potential source of large-scale disruption but leaves the daily storm pattern intact.[2][5][10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Miami on August 25?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.