Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami’s airport high is the key number here, not the citywide feel, and the market is anchored to the highest reading at Miami International Airport Station on 5 August 2026. The current 0% YES pricing implies the crowd is treating the target range as materially unlikely, even though late-summer Miami routinely sits in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit and can still spike higher on hot, dry, or especially sunny days. AccuWeather’s August daily data show Miami around 89°F/78°F on 5–6 August, while CBS News Miami described a hot, humid afternoon with highs around 90°F, which is broadly consistent with an airport reading landing in the upper-80s to low-90s band.[1][4]

For framing, comparable Miami summer days usually resolve near the climatological high rather than far outside it, so the market is really asking whether the airport can push beyond the customary low-90s cap rather than whether it will be warm. Wunderground’s history page is the settlement source, and the National Weather Service climate products for Miami are the best cross-check if you want to compare the official daily maximum against the trading ranges.[8][2] If the afternoon sea-breeze arrives early, or showers and cloud cover cut short the heating cycle, the realised high can undershoot forecast headlines by a degree or two.

Traders should watch the final day-of forecast updates, thunderstorm timing, and any shift in the airport’s observed peak hour, because those are the main dependencies that move the settlement print. Any revised forecast from local broadcasters or the NWS, especially if rain bands are expected during the warmest part of the day, can change whether Miami reaches 89°F, 90°F or 91°F at the airport.[4][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.