Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s early-August heat profile is usually warm rather than extreme, with average August highs around 74–76°F (23–24°C) and typical daily highs near 75°F, but the city can spike well above that in short hot spells.[2][3][9] For the specific date in question, historical records show that 1 August can already reach the mid-30s Celsius in exceptional years, with one long-run record set at 35.8°C for that day in Munich’s August climate series.[10]

That context helps explain why the current crowd-implied **1% YES** looks like a low-probability tail outcome rather than a baseline forecast. In practical terms, the market is asking whether the airport station’s *highest* reading will land in a temperature band at the very top end of the day’s distribution, and Munich’s August norm still centres on comfortable summer weather rather than sustained heat.[2][14][16] Comparable August records also show that the city’s monthly maximum can reach the high 30s Celsius in rare years, but those extremes are uncommon enough that the low price is broadly consistent with climatology.[5][9][10]

For traders, the main catalysts are the short-range forecast, any heat advisories for Bavaria, and whether synoptic conditions favour clear skies, southerly flow, or thunderstorms that could cap the afternoon peak. AccuWeather’s August outlook for Munich currently points to daily highs between 69° and 81°F, which keeps the event in range for a modestly warm day but still leaves plenty of room below a record-type outcome.[1] The most important dependency is the midday-to-afternoon temperature trend at Munich Airport, since the market settles on the day’s highest recorded temperature rather than the morning reading or a city-centre estimate.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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