Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's weather on 11 August 2026 will be determined by the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning afternoon heat spikes could fall outside the resolution window depending on local recording times.

August temperatures in Munich historically range between 18°C and 28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The city's continental climate produces variable summer conditions influenced by Atlantic weather systems and Alpine air masses. Looking at comparable August dates over the past decade, Munich has recorded highs between 24°C and 29°C on mid-August dates, with only occasional excursions above 30°C during particularly strong European heat events. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a specific temperature threshold that historical August patterns make unlikely, or uncertainty about the exact range brackets available for settlement.

The primary catalyst for this market will be European weather forecasting updates in early August 2026, particularly from Deutscher Wetterdienst and ECMWF models showing high-pressure systems or Atlantic low-pressure intrusions. Heat wave warnings issued by German meteorological authorities would signal potential for above-average temperatures. Traders should monitor whether August 2026 develops into a warm month across central Europe, as broader continental patterns typically drive Munich's daily highs rather than localised effects. The specific resolution source dependency on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than alternative weather stations or summary data—creates a technical resolution risk that should factor into position sizing.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.