Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's weather on 16 August 2026 will be measured against historical temperature patterns for that date and location. The settlement hinges on the highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station, as documented in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, establishing a precise methodological baseline for resolution.

August temperatures in Munich typically range between 20–27°C, with occasional peaks above 28°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August highs exceed 25°C in roughly 70% of years, whilst temperatures surpassing 30°C occur in approximately 15–20% of cases. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect an unusually cool day or are pricing in a specific temperature threshold well above typical August conditions. Comparable August 16 observations from 2015–2024 provide the most relevant reference points for assessing whether current conditions warrant such a low probability assessment.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting models released in the week preceding 16 August 2026, particularly outputs from the German Meteorological Institute (Deutscher Wetterdienst), which typically issue reliable ten-day forecasts five to seven days in advance. Broader atmospheric patterns—including jet stream positioning and any Atlantic weather systems affecting Central Europe—will shape expectations. The resolution window closes at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date, meaning final temperature readings must be confirmed through Weather Underground's official station data before market closure.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.