Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s midday high is normally in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius in August, so a market on the day’s **maximum temperature** is usually decided by whether a warm spell pushes the airport station above that baseline rather than by any overnight conditions. Long-run climate pages put typical August highs around 24–25°C, with averages near 23–24°C and only occasional excursions into the upper 20s or higher.[6][9][13][17]

The current 0% yes pricing is consistent with that seasonal profile, but it still leaves room for a move if the day turns sunnier and drier than forecast. For 6 August forecasts, sources are clustered around roughly 21–24°C for daytime highs, with some showing showers or overcast conditions and others allowing a brief rise to 24°C, which would keep the settlement in a relatively ordinary band unless later updates trend hotter.[2][3][5][8][16] The relevant check is the Munich Airport Station observation on Wunderground, so traders should watch the latest airport forecast, any midday heating outlook, and whether cloud or rain clears quickly enough for a higher afternoon peak.[4]

For this kind of market, the main catalyst is the evolution of the same-day forecast rather than team-style factors or injuries: a small shift in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind can change the day’s recorded maximum even when the morning starts cool. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Munich with daily highs mostly between 69°F and 81°F, underlining that the forecast range is not extreme; if updated guidance stays near the low 20s Celsius, the existing 0% yes probability will remain difficult to justify, whereas a sustained hot trend towards the upper 20s would be the first meaningful threat to it.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.