Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Munich Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a figure that traders must weigh against current short-range forecasts indicating a maximum near 22°C[1]. Historical data frames this 0% YES probability as rational, given that July highs at this airport typically range between 61°F and 87°F (roughly 16°C to 31°C), rarely exceeding the upper limit[4]. While a record-breaking heatwave recently swept Europe with Munich hitting 38°C on a past July 1st, such extremes are outliers rather than norms, and the current market consensus heavily favours 21°C at 77% and 22°C at 21%[1][2].

Traders should monitor the immediate arrival of thundery showers and light winds forecast for Wednesday, which could suppress peak temperatures significantly below the seasonal average[3]. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, meaning any late-afternoon heat spike will not count, and the current moderate warning for high temperature may be downgraded as cooler air moves in from the north following the recent heatwave[2][6]. Watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses, since the current forecast suggests daily highs will stay within the 68°F to 88°F band rather than reaching record-breaking levels[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.