Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich’s highest temperature on 15 July 2026 will be recorded at the Munich Airport Station and resolved using Wunderground’s daily history. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting the market is either inactive, mispriced, or awaiting settlement data that has not yet been published.

Historically, mid-July in Munich sees peak temperatures between 28°C and 34°C, with the 2022 heatwave pushing readings to 37.6°C at the airport station. Comparable years like 2019 and 2023 recorded highs of 33.1°C and 32.4°C respectively. A 0% implied probability across all ranges is inconsistent with this climatic baseline, indicating a likely data lag rather than a genuine belief that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s update cycle for the 15 July entry, which typically refreshes by 12:00 UTC the following day. The settlement window closes at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z, meaning the final reading must be confirmed before this deadline. No official weather announcement is expected; resolution depends solely on the automated Wunderground feed. Until the platform ingests the day’s data, the market cannot resolve, and the 0% figure reflects this technical stall rather than a climatic anomaly.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.