Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 10 August 2026 will determine the settlement of this market, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current 2% implied probability suggests traders expect temperatures to remain below the threshold implied by the market's resolution brackets.

New York City's August climate presents relatively constrained variability. Historical data from LaGuardia shows August daily highs typically range between 78–86°F, with extreme heat days (90°F+) occurring in roughly 15–20% of August dates across multi-decade records. The 2% probability currently priced suggests the market is calibrated toward either a notably cool August day or a specific temperature bracket positioned well above typical August conditions. Comparable August dates at LaGuardia over the past decade show few instances of temperatures exceeding 95°F, though the summer of 2022 and 2023 produced several such occurrences.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts issued in early August 2026, which will clarify whether high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns are positioned to influence the Northeast. The Atlantic hurricane season's activity and any tropical systems tracking northward could materially shift temperature outcomes. Additionally, any significant cold fronts moving through the region in early August would suppress highs, whilst persistent heat domes or stalled weather systems would elevate them. Real-time forecast updates from the National Weather Service New York office typically become reliable 7–10 days before the target date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.