Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service records the highest temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 15 August 2026 using the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, which serves as the official resolution source for this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must account for any temperature spikes that occur in the morning hours before the window shuts.

New York City's August climate is characterised by sustained heat and humidity, with historical highs typically ranging between 85 and 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The 15th falls in the middle of summer's warmest period; since 1970, LaGuardia has recorded temperatures exceeding 90°F on roughly 60 per cent of mid-August days. The current 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually cool day or reflecting uncertainty about which specific temperature band will resolve as highest. Comparable August dates show considerable variance—some years produce highs in the low 80s during cooler spells, whilst others exceed 95°F during heat waves.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in the week preceding 15 August, particularly any alerts for heat advisories or unusual atmospheric patterns. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September but can influence August weather through tropical systems or moisture surges. Real-time temperature readings from Weather Underground's LaGuardia station will be critical on the day itself, as afternoon heating typically produces the daily maximum. Any significant weather system moving through the Northeast in early August could materially shift expectations for mid-month conditions.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.