Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 August 2026 will determine the resolution range for this market. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—serves as the authoritative source, meaning the precise peak reading during that calendar day governs the outcome.

August temperatures in New York City historically cluster in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with typical highs around 82–84°F. The National Weather Service records show that readings exceeding 90°F occur in roughly 15–20% of August days at LaGuardia, whilst temperatures above 95°F are comparatively rare, appearing in fewer than 5% of August observations over the past three decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool day or uncertainty about the specific range boundaries; historical August patterns indicate moderate-to-warm conditions are the baseline expectation rather than extreme heat.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly tracking whether Atlantic tropical systems or heat domes develop in the preceding weeks. The National Weather Service's extended outlook, typically available 10–14 days before the date, will provide the first reliable signal of whether conditions favour above-normal or below-normal temperatures. Urban heat island effects at LaGuardia—a densely developed airport surrounded by Queens infrastructure—can elevate readings 2–3°F above surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when evaluating marginal range boundaries.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.