Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service records daily maximum temperatures at LaGuardia Airport using standardised meteorological equipment. On 19 August 2026, the highest temperature reading from the Daily Observations table will determine which range this market resolves to, with Weather Underground's primary data source taking precedence over any summary figures that may differ.

New York City's August temperatures have historically clustered between 75°F and 90°F, though extremes occur regularly. The city experienced a high of 99°F on 9 August 2022 and 96°F on 19 August 2019, demonstrating that late-summer heat waves can push well above typical ranges. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be breached, though without visibility into the exact range boundaries, this reflects either confidence in moderate conditions or uncertainty about which bracket represents the "YES" outcome.

Weather patterns in mid-August 2026 will depend on Atlantic tropical activity, high-pressure systems, and jet-stream positioning—factors that typically become clearer in the week preceding the date. The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly ten days in advance, providing traders with increasingly refined temperature predictions as August progresses. Historical August heat waves in the Northeast often correlate with Bermuda High positioning, which can be tracked through seasonal climate outlooks released by NOAA in the months prior.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.