Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s maximum temperature on 6 August is the relevant outcome, and the market is pricing a very low chance of a high reading by late evening UTC, which fits a final daily maximum that is already close to locked in. Current local forecast material points to New York sitting in a hot, humid spell, with some outlets showing daytime highs around 88–90°F and a heat advisory in place for the metro area, but the settlement source is the observed high at LaGuardia rather than a city-wide forecast or “feels like” value.[9][2]

The historical frame matters because August in New York usually produces highs in the low- to mid-80s, with NWS Central Park normals around 83°F and nearby station histories often landing a little above or below that depending on cloud cover, sea-breeze effects, and thunderstorms.[13][7] That means a result in the 80s is the baseline expectation, while a move into the 90s generally requires a strong pre-frontal surge, persistent sun, and limited coastal moderation; the current 0% YES price is therefore best read as the market already assuming no late-day jump beyond the listed range.[1][14]

What traders should watch is any late-afternoon convective development, changes in wind direction off the harbour, or a revised forecast from the National Weather Service that shifts the expected peak earlier or later in the day.[9][12] Because the contract settles on the *highest observed temperature* at KLGA, a brief spike matters more than the daily average, so any update on cloud cover, thunderstorms, or airport-specific conditions can still change the final bucket even if the city forecast looks stable.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.