Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is about the **highest recorded temperature at LaGuardia Airport** on 7 August, with settlement tied to Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the summary high/low figure. That distinction matters because the daily table is the primary source, so any late update or corrected observation can change the outcome even after a seemingly settled “day high” has been shown elsewhere.[4][14]

The current 0% YES pricing is far more conservative than the surrounding forecast picture. Available market and forecast data pointed to a hot early-August day in the upper 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, with Polymarket’s own range distribution concentrating heavily around 88–93°F and external forecasts showing roughly 81–84°F highs only if cloud and rain won out; that gap suggests traders were not treating a true cool-out as the base case, but were instead pricing the event as either already effectively excluded or highly dependent on how the airport station actually reported its peak.[2][3][8]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final Weather Underground observation sequence for LaGuardia, any post-publication edits to the Daily Observations table, and whether thunderstorms or sea-breeze effects suppress the airport’s maximum relative to the rest of the city. Weather Underground’s history page for New York City showed an 82°F report at JFK for the date, while outside forecast sources had still been flagging convective risk and a modestly capped high; that kind of spread between stations and models is exactly where these temperature bands can turn on a single late-afternoon reading.[4][7][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.