Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at stake is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and sourced from Weather Underground. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific outcome, suggesting traders believe the event will not reach the threshold in question, though July in New York is historically hot.

Historical data frames this probability with caution: LaGuardia’s average high for July is 85°F, with records reaching 107°F on 3 July 1966[4]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows from 68°F to 83°F[1]. Comparable years show similar volatility, meaning a 0% probability may underestimate the chance of an extreme heat spike.

Traders should monitor daily weather announcements from the National Weather Service for LaGuardia, especially any updates on heat advisories or sudden shifts in wind patterns[2]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, so real-time data from Weather Underground will be critical[3]. Any unexpected cloud cover or rain could suppress temperatures, while sustained south winds around 11 mph may elevate heat index values toward 99°F[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.