Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 19 July 2026 will determine the resolution bracket for this market. LaGuardia's official weather station provides the baseline measurement used across meteorological records for New York City, making historical data from this location the standard reference point for temperature extremes in the region.

July temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 88°F, with the station's historical records showing that extreme heat days—those exceeding 90°F—occur in roughly 15–20% of July days across a multi-decade sample. The airport's location near water provides some moderating effect compared to inland areas, though urban heat island effects in surrounding Manhattan can drive readings several degrees higher. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-average day or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will be hit.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns emerging in early July 2026, particularly whether Atlantic high-pressure systems establish themselves over the Northeast. The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts by mid-July that can signal whether heat domes or cooler maritime influences will dominate the region. Historical analogue years—particularly 2019 and 2022, which saw significant heat waves across the Northeast—provide reference points for how atmospheric conditions can drive LaGuardia temperatures into the 90s or beyond. Real-time forecast updates from major meteorological services will sharpen probability estimates as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 19?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.