Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City’s LaGuardia Airport recorded its peak daily temperature for 20 July 2026, with the market now locked on the 82–83°F range as the definitive outcome. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any lower or higher bracket reflects near-total consensus that the day’s high fell squarely within this narrow band, aligning with typical midsummer heat patterns for the region.

Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that LaGuardia’s July highs frequently cluster between 80°F and 85°F, with 82–83°F appearing in multiple recent years as a common median[2]. This consistency explains the market’s 100% assignment to that range, as deviations below 70°F or above 85°F are statistically rare in this window, making the current pricing a rational reflection of long-term climatic norms rather than speculative guesswork.

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s official daily archive for the final confirmed reading, as the market resolves strictly on its reported high for KLGA on that date[1]. No further catalysts exist post-settlement, but any discrepancy between Wunderground and other sources could prompt a review of the resolution source’s integrity, though such cases are uncommon in weather markets with established data providers.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.