Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 July 2026 will determine the resolution range for this market. LaGuardia's official weather station provides the baseline measurement used across meteorological records for New York City, with readings taken throughout the day to capture peak afternoon heat.

July in New York typically sees temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-90s or occasionally higher. Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that 21 July has seen highs ranging from 77°F to 91°F over the past three decades, with an average around 84°F. Extreme heat events—those producing temperatures above 95°F—occur in roughly 10–15% of July days across the region, though they cluster more heavily in early-to-mid July rather than late July. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the market's highest temperature threshold to fall outside historical norms for this specific date.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns emerging in early July 2026, particularly whether a high-pressure system or heat dome develops over the Northeast. The National Weather Service issues heat advisories typically 3–5 days in advance when conditions warrant, providing early signals of anomalous warmth. Urban heat island effects around LaGuardia—intensified by concrete, asphalt, and airport infrastructure—can elevate readings 2–5°F above surrounding areas, a factor worth considering when assessing probability across different temperature bins.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.