Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The day’s outcome is anchored to the highest reading at LaGuardia Airport, not to Central Park or a citywide average, so the market is ultimately about how hot it got at the station during the settlement window. That matters because airport readings can run a touch cooler or warmer than downtown observers expect, and the contract resolves on the single daily maximum rather than an hourly average.

Historically, New York City’s late-July highs often sit in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, but heat waves can push the top end into the 90s and, in rare cases, beyond that. Central Park’s all-time July 30 record is 98°F, set in 1940, while the city’s broader summer extremes have reached the mid-100s in exceptional years.[4][15] The market’s 0% implied YES on a specific temperature band suggests traders are treating the targeted range as much less likely than the broader summer heat baseline, which is consistent with a contract tied to an exact station reading rather than a loose “hot day” threshold.

For traders, the key catalysts are the official New York forecast, any heat advisories, and whether humidity and cloud cover suppress the afternoon peak or allow a late-day spike. Late-July NYC heat is often driven by stalled high pressure, with the biggest upward revisions coming when forecasters upgrade the chance of an entrenched heat dome or prolonged southerly flow.[17][18] The main dependency is the midday-to-afternoon evolution at LaGuardia: if temperatures are already near the upper 80s by late morning, the ceiling for the day’s maximum rises quickly; if marine influence or showers arrive, the top reading can stay materially lower than headline heat warnings imply.[1][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.