Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its peak temperature, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market currently pricing a 0% chance for any "YES" result. Historical data frames this near-zero probability as a misreading of New York’s summer volatility. In recent years, July 5 has frequently seen highs between 82°F and 87°F; traders on Polymarket assign the highest likelihood to the 82–83°F range at 33%, with 86–87°F as the frontrunner at 34%[1]. Even more extreme, LaGuardia hit 102°F on a recent heatwave, breaking the daily record and setting a midnight temperature of 94°F, the warmest ever recorded there[2][3]. This history proves that dismissing the upper ranges ignores the city’s capacity for sudden, record-shattering heat.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Weather Underground and Wunderground, the official resolution sources for this market, as they will publish the definitive high for the day[4]. The National Weather Service’s climatological report for LaGuardia notes a maximum of 86°F in 1999, but recent patterns show daily highs climbing toward 99°F in June 2026, suggesting July could exceed this[6][8]. Any sudden shift in atmospheric pressure or the arrival of a humid air mass from the Atlantic could trigger a spike above 90°F, a catalyst that would invalidate the current 0% pricing. Watch for updates from FOX Weather, which has tracked similar heatwaves breaking midnight records, as their reporting often precedes official Wunderground confirmations[2]. The market’s resolution hinges entirely on the single highest reading recorded at any time on 5 July, making minute-by-minute data critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.