Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the LaGuardia Airport Station will record its highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit, a single data point that determines whether the market resolves to the “YES” outcome. The current crowd-implied probability of 4% suggests traders believe an extreme heat spike is unlikely, yet historical precedent at this site shows that July days can occasionally breach 100°F. In 2023, LaGuardia reached 102°F on a Thursday, breaking a daily high record and setting a new midnight temperature of 94°F—its warmest ever at that hour[1][3]. The all-time peak for the station remains 107°F, recorded on 3 July 1966, confirming that while rare, extreme highs are physically possible[6].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for LaGuardia, which currently predicts daily highs between 81°F and 99°F for July 2026, with overnight lows of 68°F to 83°F[2]. A key catalyst is the Flood Watch issued for 6–7 July, which ended at 06:00am on 7 July and may suppress daytime heating through cloud cover and precipitation[4]. Any sudden shift in the forecast—such as a clear-sky, high-pressure system arriving before midday—could trigger a rapid temperature rise. Watch for real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as even a 2°F deviation above the 99°F upper forecast could push the reading into the critical range[8]. The settlement window closes at 12:00:00Z on 7 July 2026, leaving little time for late corrections.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.