Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, LaGuardia Airport in New York City will record its daily high temperature, a figure that determines the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to any temperature above the lowest bracket. This stark 0% YES probability for higher ranges ignores the unprecedented heat wave that just swept the northeastern United States over the 4 July weekend, when LaGuardia shattered its 1966 record by reaching 104°F on 3 July, a spike that killed 29 people in New Jersey and broke records standing for up to 154 years across a 500-mile corridor[1].

Historical comparables suggest that while the current market pricing assumes a rapid cooldown, the lingering atmospheric instability from the July 2026 heat event could sustain elevated readings well into the following week, with midnight temperatures at LaGuardia hitting a record 94°F on 4 July as the heat wave persisted into the night[3][9]. Traders must watch for announcements regarding onshore flow delays or reduced insolation, as any shift in wind patterns could cap readings near 79°F, yet the sheer density of the recent heat suggests a higher baseline than the market implies, with forecasts for mid-July showing daily highs ranging from 73°F to 91°F[4][10].

The primary catalyst for this market is the official daily report from Weather Underground, which will confirm the highest temperature recorded at any time on 9 July at the LaGuardia station, a data point that could easily exceed the 84–85°F range if the heat wave's residual effects remain strong[2][6]. Unlike typical July days where temperatures moderate quickly, the current meteorological context involves a record-breaking event that defied historical metrics, meaning the 0% probability assigned to higher outcomes may be a dangerous underestimation of the atmosphere's current volatility[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.