Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, with the market currently implying a zero per cent chance of any outcome above the lowest range. Historical data reveals that 26 June 1952 saw a record high of 101°F at this station[7], while recent June peaks in 2021 and 2025 also reached 100°F, suggesting extreme heat is physically possible despite the current crowd-implied probability[7]. The 2026 monthly forecast for LaGuardia indicates daily highs typically range between 77°F and 92°F, yet the presence of past outliers above 100°F frames the current probability as potentially mispricing the risk of a rare, intense heatwave[3].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological report issued for 26 June, which will confirm the official record temperature and settlement details[5]. Dependencies include the specific timing of the peak heat, as the market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day, not just the afternoon peak[2]. Recent weather history shows that LaGuardia experienced highs of 81°F to 82°F on the evening of 26 June in the current dataset, but the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 26 June 2026, meaning the final resolution relies on the Wunderground archive for the full day[2]. Any sudden shift in atmospheric pressure or cloud cover before the settlement deadline could alter the final temperature reading, making the Wunderground history page the definitive source for verification[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.