Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 14 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the upper range bands offered, or uncertainty about which specific threshold will be exceeded.

Paris experiences peak summer heat in mid-August, with historical records showing daily highs frequently reaching 25–28°C during this period. The city's August 2003 heatwave saw temperatures exceed 38°C, though such extremes remain statistical outliers. Recent decades show August 14 typically falls within normal seasonal patterns, with temperatures rarely exceeding 30°C at Le Bourget. Comparable August dates from 2015–2023 provide a baseline: most years recorded highs between 24–29°C, with only occasional excursions above 30°C. The current 0% probability likely reflects market participants pricing in a scenario where the highest temperature remains within moderate ranges rather than extreme heat.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting updates as August 2026 approaches, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Heatwave warnings or anomalous atmospheric patterns in late July could shift expectations. The resolution methodology—specifically reliance on the Daily Observations table at Le Bourget rather than city-centre readings—matters; airport stations sometimes record differently from urban locations. Confirmation of which temperature bands the market offers will clarify whether the 0% reflects genuine consensus or simply reflects ranges set too high relative to typical August conditions.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.