Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question concerns the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 15 August 2026, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The current crowd probability of 1% suggests traders expect a relatively moderate peak temperature on that date.

Paris experiences its warmest conditions typically in July and early August, with mid-August marking the transition toward autumn cooling. Historical data from Le Bourget shows August 15th averages around 24–25°C, with record highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. The 1% probability reflects expectations aligned with typical August conditions rather than exceptional heat. Comparable August 15th observations across recent decades show temperatures rarely exceed 30°C at this station, though the 2003 European heat wave and subsequent warm summers have occasionally pushed readings higher. The current probability pricing suggests the market is calibrated toward typical late-summer patterns.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any high-pressure systems or heat domes developing over western Europe in the fortnight before settlement. Météo-France and European weather services typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by early August. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as Saharan heat advection or persistent anticyclonic conditions—would shift expectations materially. The resolution window closes at midday UTC on 15 August, so final observations from Le Bourget must be recorded before that deadline. Weather station maintenance or data transmission issues, though rare, represent technical dependencies worth monitoring given the reliance on a specific Weather Underground data source.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.