Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 18 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will determine which temperature range this market resolves to, with settlement based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures.

August temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15°C and 28°C, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the low 30s. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C occur in roughly one-third of August days during warm summers, whilst readings above 35°C remain relatively uncommon—occurring perhaps once every five to seven years during the month. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably cool day by August standards, or that the market reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature band will be recorded rather than dismissing high temperatures outright.

Traders monitoring this market should track European weather forecasting models as August 2026 approaches, particularly those issued by Météo-France, which maintains the official station data. Seasonal patterns matter considerably: late August in Paris typically experiences slightly cooler conditions than mid-August, though this varies substantially year to year depending on Atlantic pressure systems and continental heat patterns. The precise resolution methodology—requiring data from the Daily Observations table rather than day-high summaries—means traders should verify Weather Underground's historical recording practices at Le Bourget, as discrepancies between observation tables and summary sections occasionally occur and could affect marginal cases.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 18?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.