Highest temperature in Paris on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which temperature band this market resolves to, with Weather Underground's Daily Observations table serving as the definitive source rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle through morning observation records.

August temperatures at Le Bourget typically range between 18–28°C, with historical August averages around 24°C and extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the highest temperature to fall below the lowest available range option, though this assessment warrants scrutiny given that Paris experiences measurable heat events most summers. Comparable August conditions from recent years show considerable variability: 2022 saw sustained temperatures above 30°C during Europe's heat wave, whilst cooler Augusts have produced highs in the low-to-mid 20s.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting from mid-August onwards, particularly pressure systems developing over the Atlantic and Mediterranean. The UK Met Office and Météo-France typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by early August, providing clearer signals on whether high-pressure systems will dominate or Atlantic fronts will deliver cooler, wetter conditions. Any significant heat wave warnings issued in late July or early August would substantially shift expectations, as would unusual jet-stream positioning that channels Arctic air southward—an increasingly common pattern in recent summers.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.