Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 21 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport will determine which range this market resolves to, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle through morning hours.

August temperatures in Paris typically peak between 24–27°C, with extreme heat days above 30°C occurring roughly once per decade. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect an exceptionally high reading—likely above 35°C or into a similarly elevated bracket. Historical August records for the region show that sustained heatwaves capable of producing such extremes correlate with persistent high-pressure systems anchored over western Europe, a pattern that materialises irregularly rather than seasonally.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly outputs from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which typically show skill in predicting heat events 10–14 days ahead. The specific resolution methodology—using Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries—introduces a technical dependency; discrepancies between these Weather Underground datasets are rare but documented, making source verification critical at settlement. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts in late July or early August, such as Saharan air mass positioning or jet stream configuration, will sharpen probability estimates closer to the event date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.