Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its highest temperature on 24 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific date. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders expect the actual high to fall outside the available range options or that the market has not yet attracted substantive trading volume.

July temperatures at Paris-Le Bourget typically peak between 24–26°C in average years, though heat waves can push readings significantly higher. The station recorded 40.4°C during the exceptional European heat event of June 2022, and 38.5°C in August 2003. Historical data from the past two decades shows July highs clustering around 25–28°C under normal conditions, with extremes occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% probability reading likely reflects either an unusually narrow temperature band in the available resolution categories or early-stage market formation before traders have calibrated positions against seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasting through early July 2026, particularly from Météo-France and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which typically issue reliable 10–14 day outlooks by mid-month. Atmospheric patterns driving heat waves—including high-pressure systems over continental Europe and potential Saharan air intrusions—become clearer in seasonal models by late June. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 24 July, meaning final forecasts from 23–24 July will carry the most predictive weight for traders adjusting positions in the market's final hours.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Paris on July 24?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.