Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco is experiencing a notably cool start to summer, with the San Francisco International Airport recording its coldest first half of summer since 1965, averaging just 67.6°F through mid-July [6]. This historical anomaly frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for temperatures reaching 70–71°F on 30 June 2026, as recent data shows daily highs in June typically range from 68°F to 71°F, rarely exceeding 80°F or falling below 61°F [3]. The persistent fresh breeze and sunny intervals observed today, with a current high of 67°F, reinforce the trend of subdued warmth that has dominated the region’s weather patterns [2].

Traders should monitor upcoming National Weather Service climatological reports and any sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, which could act as catalysts for temperature spikes [1]. While AccuWeather’s June 2026 forecast predicts highs between 62°F and 70°F, the coldest summer start in decades suggests a continued likelihood of temperatures staying below the 70°F threshold [5]. No major coaching changes or key absences apply here, but the dependency on Wunderground’s verified daily high for the KSFO station remains critical, as this is the sole resolution source for the market [1]. The absence of significant heatwaves in recent weeks further supports the low probability of exceeding the upper temperature range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in San Francisco on June 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.