Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 16 August 2026 will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. Seattle's August climate typically produces highs in the mid-to-upper 70s Fahrenheit, though heat waves occasionally push readings into the 80s or low 90s.

Historical August data from Sea-Tac shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur roughly once every three to five years during the month, whilst readings below 70°F are comparatively rare. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the market's temperature thresholds do not include the most likely outcome range, or that the resolution criteria present sufficient ambiguity to warrant caution. August 2024 saw Seattle peak at 79°F on the 16th, whilst the station's all-time August high stands at 96°F, recorded in 1981.

Traders should monitor late-July and early-August weather patterns, particularly the position of high-pressure systems over the Pacific Northwest and any forecast models indicating sustained heat. La Niña or La Niña-neutral conditions heading into summer 2026 could influence regional temperature tendencies. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, typically issued in June, will provide early guidance on whether August 2026 is expected to track warmer or cooler than the 30-year normal.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.