Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport’s highest recorded temperature on 5 August 2026 will settle this market, so the relevant question is whether the airport sensor gets into the low or mid-80s rather than whether Seattle has an extreme heat event. Seasonal context is fairly ordinary: AccuWeather’s August outlook for Seattle shows an average high of 78°F and average low of 58°F, which places an airport high in the 70s or low 80s in line with normal summer weather rather than a standout spike.[2] WeatherSpark’s Seattle history for early August also shows recent airport readings well into the 80s, including a 24-hour high of 84.0°F in the latest August 2026 report, so the market should be read against a warm-but-not-unusual late-summer baseline.[3]

The current 0% YES implied probability is hard to square with the historical distribution of Seattle August highs and with nearby market pricing. Polymarket’s Seattle temperature market for 4 August was clustering around the mid-80s, with 84–85°F leading at 50% and 86–87°F also material at 21%, which suggests traders have recently been willing to price a meaningful chance of airport highs above the upper 70s.[6] Extreme Weather Watch’s 2026 Seattle data similarly points to an August pattern of highs around the upper 70s to low 80s, reinforcing that a non-zero outcome space exists even without a major heatwave.[4]

The main catalysts are the day-of forecast updates, especially the overnight and morning revisions that affect whether the airport reaches the 80s by mid-afternoon. Any heat advisory, marine-layer change, or shift in wind direction would matter because Sea-Tac readings can diverge from broader Seattle forecasts, and the Wunderground settlement source uses the day’s highest airport reading rather than a citywide average.[5][9] Traders should also watch for the forecast path in the final 24 hours, since late changes in cloud cover or a stronger sea breeze can keep the airport one band lower than expected even when inland parts of the metro feel warmer.[7][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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