Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport looks set for a fairly ordinary August finish rather than a late heat spike, with the main reference point for this market being the highest reading logged in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table for 9 August. The market is already pricing a 0% YES outcome, which fits the broader Seattle climate profile in mid-August: warm afternoons are common, but extreme heat is much less frequent than in inland Pacific Northwest locations.[3][5][11]

Recent and historical comparables point to highs clustering in the upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit rather than pushing into truly hot territory. AccuWeather’s August outlook shows Seattle’s temperatures easing from the mid-80s earlier in the month towards the mid-70s around 9 August, while the Western Regional Climate Centre notes a recent maximum of 83°F with a normal August maximum near 79°F at Seattle.[1][2] That makes the market’s zeroed-out YES price easier to understand: for a much hotter settlement, traders would need an outsized warm-up well above seasonal norms, not just a routine sunny day.[1][2]

The main catalysts are the local forecast updates and any last-minute marine influence over the Puget Sound lowlands, because onshore flow can cap daytime heating even under clear skies. The National Weather Service forecast page was updated early on 9 August local time, and any revisions to the observed maximum before the next day’s first datapoint would matter for settlement under the market rules.[6][3] Traders should therefore watch for the exact Seattle-Tacoma Airport observation sequence, rather than the broader city forecast, since the listed resolution source gives priority to the Daily Observations table if it differs from the summary display.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seattle on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.