Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is in the middle of its hottest season, and August typically delivers average highs around 29–31°C with humid conditions that can push daytime peaks higher than the monthly mean. Long-run climate data for Seoul show August as the warmest month of the year, with mean maximum temperatures in the mid-30s °C on the hottest days and record highs well above 35°C, so a market centred on the day’s maximum is usually driven more by whether a hot spell lands than by the seasonal baseline alone.[3][5][15]

That makes the current 0% YES view easier to read if traders are anchoring to cooler recent observations or to a narrower range than the climatology supports. In the last two weeks, Seoul has already printed a 99°F high, and Weather Underground’s history page shows a typical August pattern of warm afternoons rather than a capped range near the low 30s °C.[1][5] Comparable August climate summaries also point to persistent heat rather than a soft ceiling, which helps explain why higher-temperature buckets can still matter even when early signals look mixed.[4][17]

For this market, the key catalysts are the day’s actual observations at Incheon Intl Airport Station, not the summary high/low box, so late-morning through mid-afternoon readings matter most for settlement.[10] Traders should watch for any change in the broader East Asian pattern — especially cloud cover, rain bands, or a cool maritime flow — because those are the main factors that would suppress the afternoon peak. The market is also sensitive to the exact hourly progression on Weather Underground, since a single hotter reading can shift the winning temperature band even if the rest of the day looks only moderately warm.[10][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.