Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-August typically peaks during the summer monsoon season, with Incheon International Airport recording some of the year's highest temperatures. August 17 falls within the period when daytime highs commonly exceed 30°C, though the exact range depends on whether a typhoon system or cold front has moved through the Korean peninsula in the preceding days.

Historical records from Incheon show considerable variation for mid-August highs. Between 2015 and 2024, August 17 temperatures ranged from 26°C to 34°C, reflecting the volatility of late-summer weather patterns in the region. Years with active monsoon circulation or tropical cyclone activity tend toward the lower end, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the peninsula push readings toward 33–35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect either an unusually cool pattern or are uncertain about the specific temperature bands offered in this market.

The Korea Meteorological Administration issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with notable updates typically arriving 7–10 days before August 17. Typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific during early-to-mid August will be the primary driver; any system tracking toward Korea would suppress temperatures significantly. Conversely, a ridge of high pressure persisting over East Asia would favour above-normal readings. Real-time monitoring of sea surface temperatures in the Northwest Pacific and upper-atmosphere patterns will clarify the likely outcome as the date approaches.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.