Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the day’s **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station** on 2 August, which will be read against the market’s Celsius bands once the day’s observations are complete. Early market pricing has centred on **32°C** and **33°C**, which fits the way this kind of contract usually behaves when traders think the forecast range is narrow but still exposed to a small upside surprise.[1]

The current **0% YES** implied probability is not unusual for a market where the exact settlement band is tied to a single station and a single daily maximum, especially when the atmosphere is already hot before the observation window starts. Comparable coverage from the Korea Meteorological Administration and local reporting has pointed to a stubborn heatwave, with Seoul and Incheon forecast in the low- to mid-30s and national highs reaching as high as 39°C, while Reuters reported South Korea’s hottest-ever reading at 41.4°C in late July as the broader heat pattern intensified.[2][3][11]

For traders, the main catalysts are the **morning update cycle**, any adjustment to the KMA short-range forecast, and whether cloud cover, sea breeze, or showers cap the afternoon peak below the forecast range. Yonhap noted daytime highs of 33–39°C across the country, while Asiae’s latest regional forecast put Incheon at 33°C and Seoul at 35°C, which leaves this market most sensitive to whether local coastal moderation arrives in time to blunt the station’s maximum reading.[2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.