Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in late August sits firmly within the region's peak summer season, with the Korean peninsula typically experiencing hot, humid conditions driven by the Pacific high-pressure system and occasional tropical moisture from the western Pacific. Historical August temperatures at Incheon International Airport—the official resolution station—have consistently recorded daily highs in the 28–32°C range over the past two decades, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 33–35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August 20th or scepticism about the market's resolution mechanics rather than genuine meteorological uncertainty.

August 20th falls late enough in summer that the season's intensity typically peaks in early-to-mid August; by late August, Seoul often experiences the onset of autumn patterns, though heat remains substantial. Comparable years show considerable variance: the 2018 heat wave pushed daily highs to 34°C in late August, whilst cooler Augusts have seen highs settle around 28–29°C. The resolution methodology—relying specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Incheon rather than summary figures—introduces a technical dependency that traders should verify against historical data consistency.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during August 2026, as these systems can dramatically alter temperature trajectories. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on August 20th, creating a tight window for final observations; any weather station maintenance or data reporting delays at Incheon could affect resolution clarity.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.