Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather in late August sits firmly within the region's monsoon transition period, when tropical systems occasionally push northward from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Incheon International Airport, the designated measurement station, typically records afternoon highs between 28–32°C during this window, though extreme heat events pushing toward 35°C remain possible when high-pressure systems dominate. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about the specific temperature threshold being queried.

Historical August data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The station recorded 34.2°C on 21 August 2018 and 29.8°C on the same date in 2015, illustrating the roughly 4–5°C range typical for this specific calendar day. Decadal warming trends have shifted Seoul's late-summer baseline upward, though individual daily outcomes remain heavily dependent on synoptic weather patterns rather than long-term climate shifts alone.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from late July onward, as any system tracking toward the Korean Peninsula would substantially cool conditions through cloud cover and precipitation. The Korea Meteorological Administration issues 10-day outlooks in early August that provide initial guidance on whether high-pressure or low-pressure systems will dominate the final week of the month. Settlement relies on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table from Incheon station specifically, making data source verification critical before the 21 August noon deadline.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.