Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The temperature at Incheon International Airport is expected to be driven by a strong heatwave across the Seoul metropolitan area, with forecasters calling for highs of around 37°C in Incheon and 38°C in Seoul on 4 August. Korea Meteorological Administration warnings in the capital region point to severe heat conditions from late morning, while SBS and Asiae both say the day’s maximum temperatures will sit in the upper 30s across the wider region.[1][3][5]

That backdrop makes the current 0% Yes price look conservative if the market is effectively asking whether the airport reaches the higher temperature bands used for settlement. Historical August climate in Seoul points to a hot, humid month rather than an outlier cool spell: WeatherSpark says 4 August is typically the hottest day of the year, with temperatures around 75°F to 85°F, and Holiday Weather lists an August record high of 38.2°C in Seoul.[14][16] AccuWeather’s August outlook also keeps Seoul’s daily highs mostly in the low-to-upper 30s Celsius, which is consistent with a heat-dominant setup rather than a mild one.[2]

The key catalysts are the exact airport maximum, the timing of any afternoon showers, and whether the heat warning materially caps the peak temperature. SBS and Asiae both note scattered showers later in the day, but also say they are unlikely to break the heat, and the KMA warning starts at 11:00 AM, so the market’s outcome will depend on how quickly temperatures climb before any cloud or rain arrives.[1][3][5] Traders should also watch for any updated KMA short-range forecast or local airport observations, because a small shift around the settlement band could matter more than the headline city forecast.[4][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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Which sports markets are available?

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.