Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 20 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the day’s highest temperature. The market resolves based on the Celsius reading recorded at this specific location, sourced directly from Wunderground’s historical daily data for RKSI.

Historical July patterns in Seoul show average highs of 28°C, with the wettest month of the year bringing a 43% chance of precipitation that often moderates extreme heat spikes [2]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a YES outcome sits at 0%, traders interpret the settlement window as heavily favouring a temperature falling outside the proposed range, likely due to the typical cooling effect of July’s frequent rainfall and cloud cover in the region [2].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Incheon station as the settlement deadline of 12:00:00Z on 20 July approaches, watching for any sudden heatwave announcements from Korean meteorological services that could disrupt the expected rainy pattern. While no specific forecast announcements have been issued yet, the dependency remains on the final recorded high at RKSI, where even a brief break in cloud cover could push temperatures above the 28°C average [2]. The market’s 0% YES probability suggests the crowd expects the day to remain within standard summer bounds rather than breach extreme thresholds.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 20?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.