Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s Incheon International Airport will record its peak temperature for 21 July 2026, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that highest reading from the Wunderground station data. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects a consensus that no extreme heat event is anticipated, aligning with typical mid-summer conditions where daily highs average 28°C (83°F) [2].

Historical July patterns in Seoul show a 43% chance of rain and average highs of 28°C, with humidity often reaching 80%, creating a humid but cool atmosphere rather than scorching heat [2]. The frontrunner outcome in the broader market is 27°C at 86% probability, followed by 28°C at 10%, suggesting traders expect temperatures to hover near or just below the seasonal average rather than spike significantly [1]. This distribution frames the 0% YES probability as rational given the lack of anomalous heat forecasts.

Traders should monitor daily Wunderground updates for the Incheon station as the settlement window closes on 21 July 2026 at 12:00:00Z, watching for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or precipitation that could lower peak temperatures [2]. No major weather announcements or coaching-style catalysts apply here, but the dependency on real-time station data means volatility could emerge if unexpected rain or cloud systems develop overnight, potentially reinforcing the current low-probability stance on extreme heat.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.