Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is entering the peak of its monsoon season, where July typically delivers daily highs near 30°C but is frequently interrupted by short, heavy downpours that suppress temperature spikes. Historical data confirms that while the average high sits around 25°C to 27°C, extreme heat events are rare during this wet window; the highest recorded July temperature since 1908 was 37.1°C on 8 July, an outlier driven by a specific heat dome rather than seasonal norms[7]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific high temperature aligns with this pattern, as the prevailing humidity and rain probability (often exceeding 80%) make sustained extreme heat unlikely[1].

Traders should monitor the immediate forecast for a passing front or persistent cloud cover, which would drag temperatures down to 27°C or 28°C, versus a clearing heat dome that could push readings toward 30°C or 31°C[6]. The settlement relies on Wunderground data from Incheon International Airport, a coastal station where sea breezes often moderate extremes compared to inland Seoul[1]. Key announcements include the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range forecasts, which currently indicate clear skies with a 10% precipitation chance and temperatures feeling like 27°C, suggesting a stable but not extreme thermal profile for the day[3]. Any sudden shift in the monsoon front timing could be the decisive catalyst for the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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