Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is currently experiencing a sharp heat spike as temperatures climbed to 37.8°C on 8 July, marking the highest early-July reading ever recorded in the capital[7]. This extreme event occurs just as the monsoon season, which typically brings heavy rain and humidity between late June and mid-July, begins to wane[1]. While daily averages in July usually hover between 21°C and 28°C, recent data shows highs frequently reaching 30–32°C under strong sunshine[2][9]. The 0% crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range likely reflects uncertainty about whether this record-breaking heat will persist or if the lingering monsoon moisture will trigger cooling showers before the 9 July settlement[1].

Traders must monitor immediate weather announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly regarding precipitation probability and wind shifts that could alter the peak temperature[4]. Historical patterns indicate that once rain clears, rising temperatures combined with high humidity can create a steamy feel, potentially pushing recorded highs above the 34°C threshold if the sun remains intense[1]. The resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, a coastal station that may experience different cooling effects compared to central Seoul[1]. With the Sinchon Water Gun Festival scheduled for late July, local heat management efforts may also influence urban temperature readings, though the airport station remains the primary metric[1]. Watch for real-time updates on Wunderground, as sudden cloud cover or rain showers could rapidly depress the peak temperature before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Seoul on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.