Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

Seoul is entering its peak summer heat phase, with June typically delivering daily highs between 25°C and 29°C, rarely dipping below 20°C or exceeding 31°C[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a temperature range suggesting extreme heat appears misaligned with historical norms, as even the hottest June in South Korea’s recorded history since 1973 averaged just 22.9°C, only 0.2°C above the previous year[5]. While South Korea set an all-time national record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon in 2018, that location is over 100km from Seoul and in a different climatic zone, making it an outlier rather than a reliable benchmark for Incheon Airport temperatures[2].

Traders should monitor the upcoming weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration, particularly any forecasts of prolonged high-pressure systems or tropical moisture influx, which could push temperatures toward the upper 30s[6]. Recent data shows Seoul hit 37.8°C on 8 July 2023, the highest early-July reading ever recorded, suggesting that extreme heat events are possible but typically occur later in the month[8]. With the settlement window ending on 25 June 2026, the key dependency is whether a sudden heatwave will materialise before that date; any announcement of a “heat emergency” or “dangerous UV levels” would be a critical catalyst to watch, as these signals often precede rapid temperature spikes[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.