Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature will be determined by the day’s peak at Pudong International Airport, and the market is effectively betting on whether that station sees a normal late-summer high or a heatwave spike. August in Shanghai is typically very warm, with average highs clustered around 31–32°C and occasional excursions into the mid-to-high 30s Celsius, while the historical record for the month is much higher still. [1][4][5]

That framing makes a 0% YES price understandable only if traders think the contract is badly mispriced against the seasonal norm, because Shanghai has a long August heat season and has produced multiple extreme-heat stretches in recent years. Shanghai authorities reported 27 high-temperature days in August 2025, including a 35.8°C peak in the city centre, and other historical summaries put the August record high at 40–41°C, showing that a top-end outcome is possible even if it is not common. [2][5][7]

What matters now is the live weather setup around Pudong, particularly any hot spell, coastal influence, or rainfall that could cap the day’s maximum before noon UTC, which is the settlement window’s cutoff. The most relevant trader inputs are the airport’s actual observations on the day, any late forecast shifts, and whether Shanghai enters the month under a broader regional heat dome; current August forecast ranges for the city still cluster around the low 30s Celsius, with some services showing highs up to 35–39°C on individual days. [8][11][14][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.