Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 9 August will be set by the highest reading in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, not the headline day-high figure. The current setup points to a hot, wet day rather than a clear test of extreme heat: forecasters have Shanghai around the mid-20s to low-30s Celsius, with rain, cloud, and strong winds limiting the chance of a sharp midday spike.[2][3][5][9] That is why a 0% yes price for an extreme temperature band can be consistent with the market: traders are looking at a constrained intraday range, not just the warmest printed forecast.[1][2][15]

Comparable August readings in Shanghai usually sit in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius, with average highs around 87°F/31°C and only occasional excursions much higher.[1][14] Forecast services for this weekend also lean cooler and wetter than the monthly norm, with 9 August repeatedly flagged for heavy rain, overcast skies, and brisk winds.[2][3][6][9] In practical terms, the market is most sensitive to whether the airport station gets a brief pre-rain burst of warmth before the main rain bands arrive, because that would determine the daily maximum in the underlying observations table.[2][15]

For traders, the key catalysts are the timing and intensity of the rain, any thunderstorm warnings, and whether winds suppress daytime warming early enough to cap the peak before midday. AccuWeather currently has 9 August at 85°F with rain through much of the day, while other forecasters show a similar pattern of heavy precipitation and cloud cover.[2][3][6] The Shanghai Pudong station’s actual observation cadence on Weather Underground will matter more than broader city forecasts, so the market can still move if the airport records one warmer observation before rainfall becomes persistent.[15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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FAQ

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