Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s mid-July heatwave typically pushes daytime highs well above 30°C, with historical records showing peaks near 38°C in recent years. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined resolution range, yet this contradicts decades of climatic data for the region. In July 2025, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station recorded a high of 38°C (100°F), while average July highs hover around 32–33°C (90–91°F) [3][6]. Even conservative forecasts for July 2026 project daily highs between 30°C and 35°C (86–95°F), making a sub-30°C maximum highly improbable under normal conditions [1][3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground on 13 July 2026, as the market resolves solely on the highest temperature recorded at ZSPD that day. Key catalysts include sudden shifts in monsoon activity or cloud cover, which could suppress temperatures below typical levels. The National Weather Service and Yr.no both indicate partly cloudy conditions with a maximum of 31°C expected on 13 July, though gusty winds up to 52 mph could influence local readings [4][10]. Any official heat advisories from Chinese meteorological authorities or unexpected precipitation events would be critical signals to reassess the 0% probability stance, as even a brief heat spike could push the day’s peak into the resolution range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.