Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its peak temperature for the day, a metric that determines the outcome of this prediction market. Historical data for June at this location shows daily highs typically climbing from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F (21°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C) [1]. The summer climate regularly sees temperatures surpassing 30°C (86°F), reaching 35°C (95°F) during the most intense sunny spells [4]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for the current range is 0%, traders should assess whether recent atmospheric patterns deviate significantly from these established norms, as the baseline expectation suggests a high likelihood of temperatures falling within the standard 25–28°C window rather than the extreme outliers implied by the zero probability.

Traders must monitor real-time weather updates for Mon 29, which currently forecasts light rain at 24°C with a 25% risk of thunderstorms, a condition that would suppress peak temperatures [5]. The primary catalyst is the presence of cloud cover and precipitation, which directly reduces shortwave solar energy and limits heat accumulation; June solar energy is already gradually decreasing from 6.0 kWh to 5.1 kWh over the month [1]. Any sudden shift in wind speed, which remains constant at approximately 11.3 mph, or an unexpected clearing of skies could alter the thermal trajectory before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 29 June [1]. The resolution source, Wunderground, will capture the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day, making the timing of the rain and storm risk critical dependencies for the final outcome [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.