Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the market seeking to predict the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station that day. August represents the tail end of Shenzhen's monsoon season, though rainfall typically diminishes by mid-month, leaving predominantly hot and humid conditions. The resolution will depend on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when automated systems occasionally report differing values.

Historical August temperatures at Bao'an show consistent patterns: daily highs typically range between 32–34°C during this period, with occasional peaks reaching 35°C or above during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside the highest bracket offered by this market's range structure. August 2026 falls within a period where longer-term climate patterns and any emerging El Niño or La Niña conditions would influence regional atmospheric pressure and moisture transport, though such forecasts remain uncertain at this distance.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather outlooks released by China's meteorological authority in the months preceding August, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual pressure systems. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during late summer occasionally disrupts normal heating patterns, though such systems typically bring rain rather than extreme temperatures. The specific choice of Bao'an Airport as the measurement station is relevant—coastal airport stations sometimes record slightly different maxima than urban centres due to maritime influence.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.