Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen will experience peak summer heat on 15 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the precise maximum temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport Station. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when hourly readings diverge from headline highs. Traders should note the resolution window closes at midday UTC, meaning the full day's temperature range in Shenzhen will be captured before settlement.

August temperatures in Shenzhen historically cluster in the 32–35°C range, with occasional peaks above 36°C during particularly intense heat waves. The city's subtropical climate produces consistent summer maxima, though inter-annual variation exists. Data from the past decade shows that extreme outliers above 37°C occur roughly once every three to four years during August, typically driven by high-pressure systems stalling over southern China. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either scepticism about extreme heat or uncertainty around the specific threshold bands offered in this market.

The key variable affecting 15 August 2026 will be the position of the Pacific subtropical high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early-to-mid August. Forecasters typically issue extended outlooks six to eight weeks ahead, though confidence in specific daily temperatures remains limited beyond two weeks. Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration bulletins and tropical cyclone tracking in late July and early August, as storm systems can suppress daytime highs or, conversely, create conditions for extreme heat if they remain offshore.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

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What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.